China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, surpassing most analysts’ forecasts as an artificial intelligence boom spurred overseas sales, official figures showed on Monday.
The July-to-September performance, reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, marked an acceleration from the 4.3 percent growth recorded in the second quarter. Preliminary data indicated that the economy expanded 4.6 percent across the first nine months of the year, keeping it within the ruling Communist Party’s full-year target range of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026.
Outbound shipments surged more than 16 percent during the first three quarters of 2026 to reach 23.19 billion yuan ($3.47 billion). The gain was fueled primarily by robust global appetite for semiconductors and related technology products.
However, the broader economy faced headwinds from sluggish domestic consumption and prolonged weakness across the property sector. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent year-on-year in September and expanded 2.6 percent over the January-to-September period.
Industrial output across sectors including manufacturing and mining increased 5.5 percent in September, pushing growth for the first nine months to 5.3 percent. In contrast, fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2 percent over the first three quarters, despite ticking up 0.7 percent last month.
Zhiguo He, a finance professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business who studies the Chinese economy, noted that while national targets remain achievable, authorities face sustained dependence on overseas markets.
“I expect Beijing is getting 4.5 percent as wanted,” He said, adding that “a managed slow slowdown is the best Beijing can hope for.”
He noted that the ongoing correction in the housing market aligns with official strategy. “Real estate is still shrinking. This is what Beijing wanted and a good thing, and China’s households have been adapting their expectations based on this,” he said.
