Arab-led political parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel could hold the balance of power following the October 27 parliamentary election, with opinion polls showing the rival main blocs running neck-and-neck without a clear path to an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The two main Arab-led factions, Ra’am and the Joint List alliance, are projected to win a combined 13 seats. Palestinian citizens make up roughly 20 percent of Israel’s population. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and most leaders of the Zionist opposition have publicly ruled out governing with them, analysts say their numbers could make them decisive to any post-election calculations.
In the run-up to the vote, the first since the October 7, 2023 attack, Netanyahu's Likud party has run campaign advertisements warning that an opposition government led by Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot would depend on Arab politicians such as Ta’al leader Ahmad Tibi. Meanwhile, the opposition has attacked Netanyahu for relying on minority ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, each of which is polling at about seven or eight seats.
The Joint List—which includes the Hadash, Balad, and Ta’al factions—has said it could provide an anti-Netanyahu coalition with a safety net by backing it in confidence votes without formally entering government. In return, the alliance said it would demand progress toward Palestinian statehood and measures against organised crime. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, has similarly focused its campaign on tackling violent crime and addressing discriminatory housing policies.
Both Arab-led lists previously faced efforts to bar them from the ballot. On September 23, the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify Ra’am and the Joint List, along with Hadash politician Ofer Cassif and Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh. On October 2, Israel’s Supreme Court overturned the bans on both party slates and Cassif. Abu Shehadeh had withdrawn his candidacy a day earlier after it appeared likely the court would uphold his exclusion.
Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, observed that public rhetoric often gives way during coalition building. “Netanyahu would work with Ra’am in a heartbeat, if it meant staying in power,” Mekelberg said.
